Background
Regret theory deals with the psychological underpinnings of decision-making. The premise is that individuals, when faced with choices, anticipate regret if the decision turns out to be suboptimal. This anticipation of regret influences their final choice in an attempt to minimize possible future regret.
Historical Context
Originally proposed by Graham Loomes and Robert Sugden in the early 1980s, regret theory emerged as an alternative to expected utility theory. Their formulation challenged the traditional economic assumptions that individuals consistently maximize expected utility without considering post-decision emotions like regret.
Definitions and Concepts
Regret theory posits that when individuals make decisions, they evaluate not only the expected outcomes but also the potential feeling of regret if the chosen option leads to a less favorable result. This theory provides a framework for understanding why people might diverge from purely rational decision-making models.
Major Analytical Frameworks
Classical Economics
Regret theory serves as a modification to classical economics, which traditionally views decision-makers as rational agents focused solely on utility maximization without ex-post affective considerations.
Neoclassical Economics
While neoclassical economics acknowledges risk and probabilities, it generally adheres to rational actors who aim to maximize utility. Regret theory introduces the psychological dimension that neoclassical models often overlook.
Keynesian Economics
Keynesian economics, which emphasizes the role of expectations and uncertainty, can incorporate regret theory to explain consumer confidence and resultant spending habits.
Marxian Economics
Regret theory is less prominently featured in Marxian Economics, which primarily focuses on class struggle, capital accumulation, and labor exploitation, but could offer insights into individual decision-making dynamics within capitalist systems.
Institutional Economics
In institutional economics, which stresses the importance of institutions and broader social factors, regret theory can illuminate how shared norms and rules can shape not only economic behavior but also emotions related to decision-making.
Behavioural Economics
Regret theory is fundamentally linked to behavioural economics, which examines psychological insights into human behavior. It complements other concepts like loss aversion and heuristic biases.
Post-Keynesian Economics
Post-Keynesian economics, with its emphasis on uncertainty and non-ergodic conditions, might employ regret theory to better capture real-world decision-making under uncertainty.
Austrian Economics
Austrian economics places a strong focus on individual choice, subjectivism, and entrepreneurial behavior. Regret theory can enrich this perspective by incorporating the anticipation of regret in entrepreneurial decisions.
Development Economics
In development economics, regret theory can be applied to understand choices made under conditions of poverty and scarcity, where the stakes of wrong decisions are significantly higher.
Monetarism
While monetarism focuses primarily on the monetary policy and control of money supply, regret theory can offer insight into the micro-level financial decisions made by economic agents in response to changes in monetary policy.
Comparative Analysis
Regret theory contrasts with expected utility theory, which assumes that individuals make choices based purely on the maximization of expected outcomes without regard for future emotional states such as regret. Regret theory, by incorporating the possibility of emotional regret, provides a more nuanced explanation for why people sometimes make seemingly irrational choices.
Case Studies
Investment Decisions
Investors often exhibit regret-aversion behavior by avoiding high-risk investments, even when potential returns are high, due to the fear of future regret if the investment fails.
Consumer Choices
Consumers tend to stick with familiar brands to minimize the possibility of regret from choosing a new, untested product.
Healthcare Decisions
Patients frequently opt for treatments that carry lower risks of regret, even if other treatments have statistically better outcomes, influenced by the emotional weight of potential future regret.
Suggested Books for Further Studies
- “Choices, Values, and Frames” by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky
- “Advances in Behavioral Economics” by Colin F. Camerer, George Loewenstein, and Matthew Rabin
- “Regret: The Persistence of the Possible” by Janet Landman
Related Terms with Definitions
- Expected Utility: A theory of how people make decisions under uncertainty, focusing on maximizing expected outcomes.
- Behavioral Economics: A field of economics that incorporates psychological insights into human behavior to explain economic decision-making.
- Minimax Regret: A decision rule used under uncertainty that aims to minimize the maximum possible regret.
By considering these elements, regret theory enriches our understanding of human decision-making beyond the classical economic models’ assumptions of perfect rationality.
