Background
In the realm of econometrics, a dynamic econometric model often deals with complex interactions between variables over time. One concept integral to such models is that of a predetermined variable. These variables are critical for ensuring the validity of econometric analysis, particularly in addressing issues such as endogeneity.
Historical Context
The use of predetermined variables in econometrics traces back to the development of dynamic models and the need for accurate estimations where causality and correlation must be carefully separated. Historically, the evolution of econometric techniques has underscored the importance of identifying variables that can reliably serve as instruments or controls, easing the complexities involved with endogenous relationships in the data.
Definitions and Concepts
In its essence, a predetermined variable within a dynamic econometric model is defined as:
- A variable whose current and lagged values are uncorrelated with the current error term but not necessarily with future error terms.
- More broadly, it is a variable whose value is determined prior to the current period.
Predetermined variables are crucial in econometric analysis as they often serve as instrumental variables. This usage helps in tackling the *endogeneity problem, where the explanatory variables are correlated with the error terms, leading to biased and inconsistent estimations.
Major Analytical Frameworks
Classical Economics
Classical economics did not heavily focus on econometrics and dynamic modeling; thus, the concept of predetermined variables was not explicitly considered within this framework.
Neoclassical Economics
In neoclassical economics, predetermined variables contribute to the examination of dynamic models especially in crafting universally applicable economic predictions and avoiding simultaneous equation biases.
Keynesian Economic
Keynesian models often rely on lagged variables to determine current values, adhering to the principle that current economic conditions are dependent on the trajectory set by past activities—thereby introducing predetermined variables implicitly.
Marxian Economics
While Marxian economics is more qualitative, the interpretation of historical class struggles, capital, and labor dynamics implicitly relies on predetermined sequences influencing current societal standings.
Institutional Economics
This school borrows significantly from historical contexts and path dependency, positing predetermined variables as central to understanding how current institutional forms emerge over time.
Behavioral Economics
Here, focus might lie on how past behavior influences current decisions, using predetermined psychological factors as part of their models.
Post-Keynesian Economics
Post-Keynesian theory includes considering the role of history and past events in determining current economic conditions, closely aligning with how predetermined variables are utilized in econometric models.
Austrian Economics
Emphasizes how past actions determine present conditions, though more qualitatively than quantitatively, often not requiring rigorous statistical models that predetermine variables.
Development Economics
Development economists frequently use predetermined variables to control for past influences on current economic outcomes, such as the impact of historical investments on present-day economic performance.
Monetarism
Focuses on lags in monetary variables affecting the economy. Predetermined variables come into play particularly in analyzing how past policies impact current economic conditions.
Comparative Analysis
Predetermined variables are particularly valued in dynamic models across various schools of economic thought. They are essential in ensuring unbiased estimations by mitigating endogeneity, providing more accurate policy implications, and developing robust econometric models.
Case Studies
Economists might use predetermined variables to study specific cases, such as analyzing how past government expenditures influence future economic growth or how previous educational outcomes affect current labor market conditions.
Suggested Books for Further Studies
- “Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach” by Jeffrey M. Wooldridge
- “Econometric Analysis” by William H. Greene
- “Time Series Analysis” by James D. Hamilton
Related Terms with Definitions
- Instrumental Variables: Variables used to tackle endogeneity by providing a source of external variation that affects the explanatory variable but not directly the dependent variable.
- Endogeneity: Occurs when an explanatory variable is correlated with the error term, leading to biased and inconsistent estimates.
- Lagged Variables: Past values of the variables included in the regression models to capture dynamic effects over time.
