Background
Exchange rates are critical in determining the comparative economic stature of countries. The notion of a misaligned exchange rate surfaces when the prevailing rate deviates significantly from an ideal level that would support a balanced economic relationship with other countries. But what does it mean for an exchange rate to be “misaligned”?
Historical Context
The term “misaligned exchange rate” has its roots in the era of the Bretton Woods system when fixed exchange rates pegged to the US dollar were thought to provide economic stability. Following its collapse in 1971, floating exchange rates were progressively adopted, increasing the potential for such misalignments due to market dynamics, national policies, and speculative forces.
Definitions and Concepts
A misaligned exchange rate describes an exchange rate that undermines a country’s economic equilibrium by failing to support a satisfactory balance of payments. Simply put, it’s an exchange rate that either overvalues or undervalues a currency relative to its economic fundamentals:
- Overvalued Currency: Makes imports cheaper and exports more expensive, leading to a potential current account deficit.
- Undervalued Currency: Makes exports cheaper and imports more expensive, possibly resulting in an excessive current account surplus and overheating the economy.
Major Analytical Frameworks
Classical Economics
Classical economists typically contended that markets are self-regulating. Deviations in exchange rates would correct themselves over time through adjustments in trade flows.
Neoclassical Economics
Neoclassical theory posits that exchange rates should align with the supply and demand for a country’s goods. Misalignments are often attributed to rigidities in labor and goods markets.
Keynesian Economics
Keynesian theorists argue that misaligned exchange rates can lead to macroeconomic imbalances necessitating governmental and institutional interventions for correction.
Marxian Economics
Marxian analysis may view misaligned exchange rates through the lens of unequal exchanges between industrial and developing nations, attributing misalignments to the uneven global economic structure.
Institutional Economics
Institutional economists focus on the role of institutions and policies in causing and correcting misaligned exchange rates.
Behavioral Economics
Behavioral economists might emphasize how psychological factors and herd behaviors in financial markets contribute to the persistence of exchange rate misalignments.
Post-Keynesian Economics
Post-Keynesian thought stresses the role of aggregate demand and anticipates more active monetary and fiscal policy interventions to address misalignments.
Austrian Economics
Austrian economists may attribute misaligned exchange rates to the distortions created by government interference and advocate for free currency competition.
Development Economics
In the context of development economics, exchange rate misalignments can severely disrupt the economic progress of developing countries by distorting trade flows and capital movements.
Monetarism
Monetarists focus on the implications of monetary policy on exchange rates and stress the importance of money supply management to avoid misalignments.
Comparative Analysis
Across different schools of thought, solutions to misaligned exchange rates vary, from market self-correction mechanisms and active governmental policy interventions to institutional reforms.
Case Studies
- China’s Yuan (RMB) and the U.S. Dollar: Accusations of currency manipulation and its implications on trade imbalance.
- Japan in the 1980s: The impact of an overvalued yen leading to exports struggles and subsequent interventions.
- Argentina’s Currency Board: Use of fixed exchange rates and the resulting economic crisis when the currency became severely overvalued.
Suggested Books for Further Studies
- The Economics of Exchange Rates by Lucio Sarno and Mark P. Taylor
- International Economics: Theory and Policy by Paul Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld, and Marc Melitz
- Exchange Rate Misalignment: Concepts and Measurement for Developing Countries edited by Lawrence E. Hinkle and Peter J. Montiel
Related Terms with Definitions
- Balance of Payments: A record of all economic transactions between residents of a country and the rest of the world.
- Current Account Deficit: When a country imports more goods and services than it exports.
- Current Account Surplus: When a country exports more goods and services than it imports.
This dictionary entry serves as a comprehensive starting point for understanding misaligned exchange rates, their implications, and broad perspectives from different schools of economic thought.
