Background
Minimax regret is a concept used in decision theory to choose an action by minimizing the maximum possible ‘regret’ an individual could experience. This rule is particularly useful in situations characterized by uncertainty, where probabilities of different outcomes are not known.
Historical Context
The minimax regret criterion traces back to decision-making principles developed during the mid-20th century. The concept of regret minimization gained attention in economic practices involving decision-making under extreme uncertainty. This criterion represents a deviation from the more conventional expected utility theory and ties into the broader domain of utility theory and rational decision-making.
Definitions and Concepts
Minimax regret involves quantifying and then attempting to minimize ‘regret,’ which is the difference between the payoff from the best action in a given state of nature minus the payoff from the action actually taken. The goal of minimax regret is to choose actions where the maximum potential regret is as small as possible.
Major Analytical Frameworks
Classical Economics
Minimax regret does not traditionally feature prominently in classical economics, which predominantly emphasizes notions of equilibrium and utility maximization given well-defined probabilities.
Neoclassical Economics
Similar to classical economics, neoclassical frameworks typically assume well-defined probabilistic forecasts. Minimax regret can be seen as a supplementary criterion in contexts where these probabilistic approaches are hard to justify or obtain.
Keynesian Economics
Keynesian perspectives may incorporate minimax regret when dealing with decisions involving significant uncertainty, particularly in macroeconomic policy decisions during downturns or volatile economic periods.
Marxian Economics
While primarily centered on class struggle and capital dynamics, the minimax regret framework could potentially be applied to certain decision-making processes within Marxian analysis like policy choices under uncertain revolutionary outcomes.
Institutional Economics
Institutional economics deals broadly with decision-making within organizations and societal rules, providing fertile ground for applications of minimax regret, particularly in regulatory and policy decision contexts.
Behavioral Economics
Behavioral economics has a strong alignment with minimax regret as it accounts for human tendencies to avoid fare badly compared to others or in hindsight, emphasizing individuals’ tendencies to act under bounded rationality.
Post-Keynesian Economics
Post-Keynesian economics could deploy minimax regret principles when making decisions under deep uncertainty or ambiguity, common considerations in their schools of thought.
Austrian Economics
Austrian Economics, emphasizing individual decision-makers operating under uncertainty, provides some compatibilities with minimax regret principles against the backdrop of entrepreneurial decisions and market signaling confusion.
Development Economics
Applying minimax regret within development economics might involve critical decisions regarding policies under uncertain developmental outcomes, ensuring minimum loss from policy initiatives.
Monetarism
Monetarist economic policies often operate under economic uncertainties (e.g., inflation rates). Here, adopting minimax regret strategies can help steer policies that mitigate major losses in economic welfare.
Comparative Analysis
Approaches like expected utility versus minimax regret introduce varied paradigms for tackling decision-making under uncertainty. Expected utility relies on probabilistic scenarios, while minimax regret functions where such probabilities are unavailable or untrustworthy, emphasizing worst-case analysis.
Case Studies
Potential case studies include economic policy decisions during crises, agricultural decision-making with uncertain weather patterns, or investment decisions in highly volatile markets. These exemplify the application of minimax regret criteria in real-world settings.
Suggested Books for Further Studies
- “Theory of Decision under Uncertainty” by Itzhak Gilboa
- “Decisions under Uncertainty and Time: Theory-based Practical Guidance for Businesses and the Policy Departments” by Nigel Harvey
Related Terms with Definitions
- Risk aversion: A phenomenon where individuals prefer outcomes with lower unpredictability.
- Expected utility theory: A blog where choices are made to maximize average utility based on given probabilities.
- Uncertainty: Situations where the probabilities of outcomes are unknown.
- Opportunity loss: A measure of what one forfeits by a particular decision compared to the best possible outcome given a certain state of nature.
This curated overview includes various frameworks intersecting with minimax regret, elaborating on its placement in economic theory and decision-making.
